Taking 'Stock' of Danica's Next Move
6/1/2009June 1, 2009
That a pre-Indianapolis 500 media availability would provide the forum for gasoline to be thrown on the Danica-to-NASCAR fire was about as surprising as A.J. Foyt getting hot at Robin Miller.
Let's understand what is going on here: Patrick is in the last year of her current team and sponsor contracts. Even if business conditions allowed her primary corporate backer to return - very questionable - it wouldn't be close to the current amount of about $7 million per.
Money. That is what is driving this story. Exercising her "stock option" could net Danica a $10 million-per-year deal.
A third-place Indy finish only strengthened her bargaining position.
To me, the question is not if Danica should make the move: I think she would go nowhere slowly in cars that drive terrible, are 2,000 pounds heavier, with a ton less downforce. Her only worse course of action would be to Formula One, where I doubt she'd make it to half-season.
Since only Ms. Patrick knows what she will do, the issues to be discussed here are how and why this might happen. Keep this list handy as things unfold in the upcoming weeks:
* NASCAR's declining TV numbers make Danica even more attractive to series' management and executives of its media partners. She might be considered a "quick fix" to some of Sprint Cup's problems.
* Patrick shifted her own management team earlier this year, signing with IMG, and powerhouse agents Mark Steinberg and Alan Zucker. Steinberg is Tiger Woods' agent and Zucker works with Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks Peyton and Eli Manning. Patrick's father, T.J., described the change as "designed to get more into sports marketing." He said her IndyCar win in Japan last year failed to bring in new endorsements: "She didn't really get anything out of the win at all, other than some media coverage."
* Funding to help make it happen could come from NASCAR's diversity program budget, an immediate payoff for a program which, as yet, hasn't produced results.
* Patrick would only go to a top team - meaning Rick Hendrick, Joe Gibbs, Roush Fenway, or Richard Childress. Assuming NASCAR's four-team limit remains in place, Hendrick doesn't have an open spot, but could place her at Stewart-Haas Racing. Gibbs is open to a fourth car, and Toyota is best positioned among the manufacturers to help meet her financial demands. The dynamics of Patrick being a teammate to Kyle Busch, however, should give Gibbs' pause. Roush already is one team over the max, meaning she'd likely have to go to the Yates Racing satellite operation. Childress' also has a full lineup, but Casey Mears isn't exactly making people forget Uncle Rick. Childress also has a sponsor, currently aligned with Clint Bowyer, that one would think would love to have Patrick.
* No matter how much political game-playing is required, she'd be in a car counted as top-35 in 2009 owner points, to guarantee her spot in the "10 season's first five races. Actually, I wouldn't be at all surprised if NASCAR found a way to ensure she started every event - ticket-selling-challenged promoters (who might be tapped to assist in paying her) would demand it.
* As Patrick is a creature of celebrity, the NASCAR Media Group could create numerous opportunities for her, perhaps including her own TV show.
* Bank on this: Danica's souvenir sale revenue would multiply overnight, and likely rank second only to Dale Earnhardt Jr.
* The downside, for her, would be a dramatic lifestyle change - relocation from Arizona to North Carolina, and 38 race weekends vs. the IRL's 17.
* Speaking of Versus, the League's 10-year deal with that second-tier cable outlet makes it more likely she'd go to where big-time players Fox, TNT and ABC/ESPN would put her in the spotlight. Simply put: Versus is not the place to build her stardom. A record-low Indy 500 TV rating also is something for her to ponder.
* The perception of instability within the Hulman-George family is just one more factor that could steer her south.
Should she stay or should she go?
It doesn't matter. Either way, Danica is in the driver's seat.
[ Next column: June 15 ]
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(I.N. Sider is the pen name for an independent motorsports business-person who has a quarter-century of professional experience working in almost every major North American racing series. The writer is not an employee of Valvoline or Ashland Inc. The column is intended to inform, entertain, and stimulate thought on the contemporary motorsports scene. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Valvoline or Ashland Inc.)
BackAbout I.N. Sider
I.N. Sider is the pen name for an independent motorsports business-person who has a quarter-century of professional experience working in almost every major North American racing series. The writer is not an employee of Valvoline or Ashland Inc. The column is intended to inform, entertain, and stimulate thought on the contemporary motorsports scene. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Valvoline or Ashland Inc.